Working Papers 

Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers, with Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yildrim. CEPR Discussion Paper 18628, FRBNY Staff Report No. 1080, NBER Working Paper 31887. (v.Nov23)

Is the Green Transition Inflationary? with Marco Del Negro and Keshav Dogra. CEPR Discussion Paper 17906, FRBNY Staff Report No. 1053. Liberty Street Economics Blog. (v.Sep23)

Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending, with Ricardo Correa, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minou. CEPR Discussion Paper 18631, Fed Board IFDP 1383, FRBNY Staff Report No. 1076, NBER Working Paper 31860. (v.Nov23)

Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms’ Financing, and the Macroeconomy, with Manuel-García Santana, Priit Jeenas, Enrique Moral-Benito, and Josep Pijoan-Mas. CEPR Discussion Paper 17023, FRBNY Staff Report No. 1006, VoxEU.org Column. Online Appendix. (v.Jan24). Formerly titled “Government Procurement and Access to Credit: Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Implications”

The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures, with Gianluca Benigno, Jan J. J. Groen, and Adam I. Noble. FRBNY Staff Report  No. 1017. (v.May22)

Publications

These papers are copyrighted by the respective publisher. A single copy may be downloaded and printed for the reader’s personal research and study only. No other use is permitted.

Peer-Reviewed Journal

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms, with John Rogers. IMF Economic Review, 72 (March 2024), 58–115. Liberty Street Economics Blog.

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Isabelle Mejean. Journal of Political Economy, 132:2 (February 2024), 391–433. Online Appendix. VoxEU.org Column.

Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy, with Galina Hale. Journal of Finance, 77:6 (December 2022), 3373–3421. Online Appendix. Liberty Street Economics Blog. Data and Programs (zipped Matlab and Stata files).

International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles, with  Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Mehmet F. Ulu, and Yusuf S. Baskaya. Review of Economic Studies, 89:2 (March 2022), 733–773. VoxEU.org Column, Replication package on Zenodo.

The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Comovement, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Isabelle Mejean. American Economic Review, 108:1 (January 2018), 82–108.  VoxEU.org Column

Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel, with Yusuf S. Baskaya, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, José-Luis Peydró, and Mehmet F. Ulu. Journal of International Economics, 108:S1 (May 2017), S15–S22.

Income-Induced Expenditure Switching, with Rudolfs Bems. American Economic Review, 106:12 (December 2016), 3898–3931. Online Appendix, VoxEU.org Column, Data and Programs (zipped Stata and Matlab files with subset of data that is publicly available)

A Global View of Cross-Border Migration, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Francesc Ortega. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13:1 (February 2015), 168–202. Online Appendix, VoxEU.org Column.

Press coverage: New York Times

Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Isabelle Mejean. Econometrica, 82:4 (July 2014), 1303–1340. Online Appendix, VoxEU.org Commentary, Programs (zipped Stata and Matlab files)

The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Jing Zhang. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6:3 (July 2014), 153–183. Online Appendix, VoxEU.org Column

Firm Entry, Trade, and Welfare in Zipf’s World, with Andrei A. Levchenko. Journal of International Economics, 89: 2 (March 2013), 283–296.

Country Size, International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies, with Andrei A. Levchenko. Journal of Political Economy, 120:6 (December 2012), 1083–1132. Online Appendix.

Press coverage: The Economist

Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade: Measurement and Implications, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Romain Rancière. Journal of International Economics, 85:1 (September 2011), 42–52.

Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement, with Andrei A. Levchenko. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2:3 (April 2010), 95–124. Online Appendix, VoxEU.org Commentary, Data and Programs (zipped Stata files)

Trade Openness and Volatility, with Andrei A. Levchenko. Review of Economics and Statistics, 91:3 (August 2009), 558–585. Data and Programs (zipped Stata files)

Following Germany’s Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Estimate the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy, with Justin McCrary and Till von Wachter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 91:2 (May 2009), 315–331. Data (zipped Stata file)

The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime, with Jay Shambaugh. Journal of International Economics, 74:2 (March 2008), 341–361. Online Appendix, Data (zipped Stata file)

Remoteness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility, with Claudio Bravo-Ortega. IMF Staff Papers, 53:Special Edition (2006), 115–132. Data (Stata file)

What Drives Capital Flows? The Case of Cross-Border M&A Activity and Financial Deepening. Journal of International Economics, 65:1 (January 2005), 127–149. Data (zipped Stata file). For citing the data please reference Thomson Financial and my JIE paper.

Other Research Publications

What is the evidence that trade uncertainty affects US bank lending? with Ricardo Correa, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minou. In Geoeconomic Fragmentation: The Economic Risks from a Fractured World Economy, S. Aiyar, A. Presbitero and M. Ruta (eds) (2023) CEPR Press, Paris & London.

Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints, with Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yildrim.  American Economic Association: Papers & Proceedings, 113 (May 2023), 76–80.

Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation, with Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yildrim. Conference Proceedings: Challenges for Monetary Policy in a Rapidly Changing World, ECB Forum on Central Banking, June 27-29, 2022.

Press coverage: Bloomberg, Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, NPR

The Welfare Consequences of Income-Induced Expenditure Switching, with Rudolfs Bems.  American Economic Association: Papers & Proceedings, 108 (May 2018), 547–551.

Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement, with Andrei A. Levchenko and Isabelle Mejean. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 107:5 (May 2017), 598–602.

The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade, with Andrei A. Levchenko, in Jeffrey Frankel and Christopher Pissarides, eds., 2011 NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, 2012, 97-151.